On the set of the film From the Rough, which I am producing and which is in production until November 5, I spoke with the film’s costume designer.  She told me that there is a shortage of tailors, shoe repair people, and weavers everywhere she goes. I can believe what she says, because it is consistent with my experience.  When my wife and I lived in New York City between 1981 and 1991, I needed to get a tear in a nice suit repaired.  A Saks Fifth Avenue sales professional referred me to a weaver, an elderly Italian woman, who was the only weaver he could identify.  She had a four-week backlog of work, and had hundreds of suits, trousers, and coats piled in her small retail space.

When I hear or read about the latest unemployment statistics, which, by the way, are significantly understated (the real unemployment rate is probably about 15-16% instead of 9.6%, since someone who is “discouraged” from seeking work is still unemployed, even if he or she is not formally applying for jobs), I get frustrated with the inflexible and short-sighted way in which governments and individuals are addressing the problem.

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Reporter David Segal of The New York Times wrote a piece in the Sunday, September 19, issue entitled Just Manic Enough: Seeking Perfect Entrepreneurs – The New York Times which really resonated with me.

I am producing a feature film, and many have said to me, in one form or another, what one investor said in the article about starting a new company:  “You need to suspend disbelief to start a company, because so many people will tell you that what you’re doing can’t be done, and if it could be done, someone would have done it already.”  Segal describes entrepreneurs and people like me who are engaged in entrepreneur-like activity as having to be “just crazy enough.”

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In the Thursday, September 9, 2010, New York Times, Matt Bai, a political columnist, in an article entitled “In Obama Economic Stance, Risk of Confusion,” points out that President Obama made a significant, and probably mistaken, decision to turn the crafting of the 2009 stimulus legislation over to Congress.  As Bai points out, the legislation could have achieved one or both of two goals: first, to create targeted, short-term economic stimulus; or second, to fund longer-term investments in infrastructure, technology, and human capital that would have provided the foundation for sustainable growth and competitiveness.

As Bai points out, while the legislation had some investments that accomplished each of the two goals, neither potential goal was adequately pursued with the stimulus legislation. Instead, as Bai stated, Congress essentially used the legislation to address the most vocal “demands of disparate constituencies.”  There is a political consequence to this conclusion, which is that the majority of Americans now consider the stimulus legislation to have been a failure. Bai quotes Rahm Emanuel, the White House Chief of Staff, “you should never let a serious crisis go to waste.” The crisis, which precipitated the passage of the legislation created an opportunity for fundamental societal change that was not taken.

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This past week, I was on vacation, first at Martha’s Vineyard and then in Mashpee on Cape Cod.  I have an I-Phone, which means that I have ATT cellular phone service, as was the case with my wife, my sister-in-law and brother-in-law, whom we visited on Martha’s Vineyard, and many of their other visitors.  Additionally, I rented a home that had all cordless phones.  The owners, whom we met Saturday morning, July 10, before leaving had Sprint cellular phones.

The telephone and Internet service were so bad for the eight days we were away that we were effectively cut off from communicating with others except for very brief periods when we could find a signal at a handful of locations.  Moreover, when there were power outages because of weather and horrific heat, we also were unable to use the landline phones in the rented house or the wired Internet service the owners had provided us.

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As stories appear day after day about the dire financial positions of state and local governments, the question that pops up is: where did all our tax money go?  I would suggest three answers:

• Excessive benefits for government employees and their families;
• Excessively high payments to vendors; and
• Excessively high welfare payments.

I would also suggest that states, over time, because of well-intended, but poorly conceived, laws, substituted unproductive clerical and bureaucratic rules-oriented employees for those who did productive work.  For example, governments today very likely have more clerical and administrative employees, but lack skilled professionals of all kinds to manage projects and programs.  In schools, there are many more administrators and service employees relative to teachers than there were a generation ago.

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I was prepared to post another blog recently, but decided that it was important to post some observations about John Wooden, the great basketball coach of UCLA who died on June 4 at age 99.  Like most people passionate about sports at all levels, I admired John Wooden as a coach, a teacher, and a leader.

Wooden won the NCAA championship with a very small, fast team in 1964 and 1965, with two dominant centers, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (then called Lew Alcindor) and Bill Walton, between 1967 and 1973, and with a team of physically strong forwards and guards in 1970 and 1975.  He made his team the center of attention rather than himself.

What were his secrets?  Every successful college coach has to be a great recruiter, a great team builder, a great teacher, and a great game coach.  However, what struck me most about Wooden was a quote about him in the June 14, 2010, issue of Sports Illustrated, in an article by Alexander Wolff entitled “Remembering the Wizard, ” as well as a quote on a sign he posted on his office wall.

The quote about him was “His great strength was a knack for knowing when and what to change, and when to leave things be. He let sands shift, but only over bedrock.”  The quote on his office wall was “It’s what you learn after you know it all that counts.”  The combination of these two statements is the essence of a great human being: someone who continuously learns and tests his or her ideas, and, through continuous learning, discovers what changes, as well as what is unchangeable.

The stakes for continuous learning have been raised by the scientific research summarized by David Shenk in his book The Genius in All of Us. The research to which Shenk refers us makes it increasingly clear that what we thought were genetically-determined traits in ourselves and our children and grandchildren may very well be changeable, based on our behaviors and attitudes. Shenk’s point is that, by our actions to learn, grow, and become healthier, we can alter the genetically-expressed traits in future generations, especially for future offspring or for children still under our environmental control.

In this stage of my life, I have transformed myself from a secure corporate executive to a person who is engaged in a number of entrepreneurial pursuits.  Although my life is at a more frantic pace than ever before, I feel more energized and healthier than ever.  I am making mistakes left and right in my new pursuits, which include investments in health care companies, charity service providers, a reality TV incubator, and even two full-length feature films, one of which is fully produced and is Fog Warning, and the other of which is at the pre-production stage through a newly-formed production company called Gyre Entertainment.

The words describing John Wooden ring true to me because virtually every transformational success that occurred in my life happened because I broke the rules and followed a path different from those who seemed to have mastered conventional paths to success that were no longer working predictably.  I am particularly finding that today in the film industry.  No one in their right mind would say that anyone in the film industry has a working formula for success.  Most films fail, andmost investors never get their money back.

The most successful film industry people with whom I have spoken are respected because they have a less poor record than others, and, perhaps, had a single blockbuster hit or a single Academy Award nomination that validates them.  There is an old (and, as expressed, politically incorrect) statement that “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed person is king.” However, I aspire to be consistently successful, not to get a hit 1 in 10 times, so I know that I need to use a radically different approach to making and distributing a movie.  Similarly, the person who is successful 10% of the time is a failure in my book.

The movie industry reminds me of the direct mail business, in which direct mailers celebrate a 1% response rate as an exceptional success in an industry in which the average response rate is .25%. To me, a 1% response rate is an abysmal failure. It means that 99% of the people threw the mail into the wastebasket without responding.

What do these two industries have in common and how is John Wooden’s wisdom relevant to both?  What they have in common are a lot of relatively successful and wealthy people who depart from Wooden’s maxim that it’s what you learn after you think you know it all that matters.  These industries are dominated by people who stop learning after they “know it all” because they achieve a certain level of success.

I am not wired that way.  I strive to succeed all of the time, although I know that is impossible, simply because I know that striving for continuous success means that I will approach a problem radically different from the mainstream people in an industry.  I also know that many of them will ridicule me, and tell me that what I am trying to do will not succeed.  Their deep skepticism often is grounded less in logic or facts, but in a deep-seated need to believe that their approach is unassailable, even if it fail 90% of the time (as it does in entertainment) or 99.75% (as it does in direct mail).

How do we distinguish between what must change and what is foundational, something John Wooden understood in the context of basketball coaching and educating?  First, anyone who tells me that they have a consistent playbook or formula for success that has worked for several decades is automatically suspect.  Similarly, anyone who tells me that all the rules that have governed the past no longer apply is also suspect.  The current and future environments will always be a mix of the new and the time-tested.

Second, I am immediately suspicious of someone who tells me that a product or service that depends for its success on the stupidity and irrationality of the public is also suspect.  As Abraham Lincoln once said: “You can fool some of the people some of the time, all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”

Third, I get suspicious of anyone who tells me success is totally random or totally formulaic and predictable.  Fourth, I get suspicious of anyone unreceptive to my ideas because I am new to a field. Someone who judges me based on my track record rather than the strength of my ideas will undervalue what I am saying or proposing. Finally, I value entrepreneurs or thinkers who continually test out their thinking and adapt, based on what they learn. Transformative thinkers are highly secure people who are not scared to admit they might have been wrong.

John Wooden has left this earth, but, fortunately, his example and his teaching will stay with us and be available to inspire and teach us forever.

In the Friday, May 21, 2010, issue of The New York Times, there was a front-page story by reporters Mary Williams Walsh and Amy Schoenfeld entitled “Padded Pensions Add to New York Fiscal Woes.” The reporters highlighted the fact that many financially strapped New York State cities are saddled with pension costs far in excess of what their financial experts estimated when the pension plan provisions were put into place.

Unfortunately, this is an all-too-familiar story: a governmental entity that irresponsibly agreed to rich pension benefits to allow government workers to retire very young, receive an exceptionally high percentage of their pay, and have taxpayers feel the financial burden decades later.  However, the example provided relative to Yonkers, New York, is especially outrageous.

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Recently, I re-read Michael Lewis’ great book Moneyball, which, on the surface, is a book about baseball, and, particularly about Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland Athletics.

Lewis, who wrote books such as Liar’s Poker, Panic, and The Big Short, is clearly intrigued by fields of endeavor in which individuals succeed because they recognize the value of data when others are operating more by the seat of their pants.  Lewis described a baseball talent evaluation marketplace in which Billy Beane, who was obsessively driven by performance statistics, battled baseball scouts, managers, and coaches who tended to evaluate players based either on their visible physical and athletic skills or the performances these individuals observed.  As a result, when Beane overruled his organization and made decisions based on his statistical analyses, he tended to acquire undervalued talent and get a premium price when he disposed of overvalued talent.

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The title of this blog is meant to provoke thinking about a fundamental dilemma that elected officials in any democracy face: when serving the public broadly means that jobs of a small number of people could disappear, what happens?

We have known for a long time that government is more responsive to a well-organized single-issue constituency, even if the vast majority of voters would oppose the position the single-issue group is taking.  For example, that is why government officials have consistently been reluctant to take on the National Rifle Association, even though the vast majority of Americans favor a more aggressive regulation of guns than is the case today.  I am not making a value judgment about this issue, other than to say that elected officials think of the electorate as a collection of well-organized, passionate special interest groups than they do a mass of voters to which they have to respond.

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I am a big fan of Thomas Friedman, so I avidly read everything he publishes.  In the April 4, 2010, Sunday’s New York Times, he published an op-ed piece entitled “Start-Ups, Not Bailouts.” His main argument:

“Good-paying jobs don’t come from bailouts.  They come from start-ups.”  Will start-ups address our structural unemployment problem?

Yes and no.  They will be a great solution for well-educated, enthusiastic young people who are currently unemployed and perhaps discouraged about prospects for jobs and careers.  Without some additional interventions, they are not a good short-term or even medium-term solution for older workers who have lost their jobs at big companies or government agencies.  As the former CEO of a big company and the current chairman of one start-up business, Dossia, and a board member or investor in several other start-ups, big company or government and start-up jobs and work situations are radically different.

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