I have been struck by the huge perception gaps between those in positions of decision-making authority and the broader population affected by their decisions.

These gaps matter because leaders cannot make good decisions when they do not understand that categories within which they think about the world are out-of-date or even just plain wrong.  Aside from the increasing complexity and interconnectedness in the world, there are three reasons for this:

• Senior leaders continue to be isolated from the day-to-day environment around them, even though isolation is having progressively riskier consequences;
• Everyone is operating in more fragmented media environments in which it is harder to get a holistic view of what is happening; and
• Even if we understand a particular issue, geography, country, market, or culture, it changes so fast that our knowledge become obsolete more quickly.

Senior leaders, particularly older white males, are isolated from what is happening in their organizations, as well as the societies of which they are apart.  In particular, they broadly underestimate diversity and complexity in our society, as well as other societies.

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Many times over the years, I have said that the most important role I have played in my life has been that of being a father.  My wife Joyce and I have been blessed with three wonderful children, who are now 25, 20, and 18 respectively: two boys and a girl.

Many people have told me I was a “good father.”  While I have acknowledged that remark as the compliment it was intended to be, I also have had the odd reaction that it always carried with it the implication that being a father was a dreary, thankless duty, which it has never been for me.

The secret of being a great parent is not all that secret in one sense.  It is about loving your children unconditionally, and, as the old saying goes, “giving them roots and wings.”  However, the part about being a parent that is not often discussed in commentaries about parenting is the degree to which we are shaped by the interests our children choose.

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Every organization, industry and society is going through wrenching change right now.  There will be no return to a “normal” state that resembles a prior period in world history.  I am observing this first-hand in the health care and film industries, and as a well-informed observer in the industry I left 2 ½ years ago, the mailing industry.

The film industry is particularly going through wrenching change, but, as a recent entrant to the industry, I have seen both the challenges and the new opportunities that change has created.  Clearly, the move to digital technology has effectively destroyed the traditional retail DVD rental market, with the limited exception of Red Box kiosks.  It has also thrown into confusion the economic model for digital downloads, since Netflix has built an economic model based on fixed monthly rentals, although its founder Reed Hastings recently noted that the low monthly rentals may not work if subscribers want mostly new films, as opposed to a mix or new and old ones.

I experienced the consequence of this complexity with the difficulty my strategic consultant had in describing the new potential economic model for our film From the Rough in preparing our investor memorandum.  He found the data and did the analyses we needed, but it took longer and was far more complicated, because any data that was more than a few years old on non-theatrical revenue streams was essentially obsolete.

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Why don’t more Americans go into public service?  This is a most important question, because the public sector is being crippled by mediocre, sometimes poor, and, infrequently, but too often, corrupt leadership.  When I was young, my parents strongly encouraged me to consider either a career in public service or taking on periodic assignments in public service. I do not want to romanticize government officials in the past, because many of the pathologies we see today have been around for centuries and even millennia.

Nevertheless, I grew up reading about historical figures like the Roman leader Cincinnatus who left his farm to serve in a leadership position, fulfilled his public responsibilities, and then returned as quickly as possible to his farm and his family.  George Washington was admired because he completed his two presidential terms, and then went back to his Virginia home.  Both of these leaders represented a set of values which placed public service above personal ambition.

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Upton Sinclair, the author of The Jungle, and a renowned journalist from the early 20^th century, once said that “it is difficult to get someone to understand something when the continuation of his livelihood depends on him not understanding it.” This is a profound, but simple, truth.

Whole industries and marketplaces, and often political and social paradigms, depend on people willfully denying reality.  In health care, the stubborn myth is that more care is always better care.  This myth enables health care providers to make more money, not have to make tough end-of-life decisions, and appear to be giving the patient what he or she wants.

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The recent tragic suicide of Dave Duerson, a great professional football player, who made a conscious decision to end his life in a way that enabled his brain to be donated to Boston University’s Center for Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy, reminds us of a profound truth about our nation’s health care crisis: we have to address the root causes of unhealthy and destructive behaviors before we can change the behaviors.

The assumptions underlying many of our health care policies are that people are most motivated to do what is healthy for them and their families, and if we could only get them good information, and good and affordable care, they would do the right things.  Unfortunately, the reality is much more complex.

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In the early 1980’s, shortly after George Harvey became the Chairman and CEO of Pitney Bowes, I asked a more senior colleague why he thought George was the best candidate among those who vied for the CEO position.  He talked about George’s wisdom and track record, but he also said: “Unlike many adults who collect a paycheck, he actually makes tough decisions.”  He went on to explain that many highly-paid, well-credentialed people are afraid to put themselves at risk by making difficult decisions, but that no leader of a major organization could afford to be afraid to take the risk of being wrong or pretend to be taking certain actions.

That comment has not only stuck, but seems more astute than ever.  I have been both more admiring of people who stick their neck out, and more frustrated with those who should, but do not, when tough situations occur.  In the last few years, we have moved into the most difficult economic environment since the 1930’s.  It has effectively “smoked out” whether people want to embrace tough decisions and engage others in constructive conflict, or whether they will develop even more elaborate ways to avoid those decisions.  I have seen more of both kinds of people in the last three years than ever before, especially the non-performers who have learned to survive by “pretending” to perform.

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Catherine Rampell of the New York Times wrote an article that, unfortunately, reports on an all-too-common problem, the increase in the long-term unemployed population, on December 2, in a story entitled “Dwindling Prospects.” I know people who fit her description. In fact, I have spoken to a local support group of individuals who are part of the long-term unemployed population, in one of the wealthiest communities in the world, Darien Connecticut.

I was effectively unemployed once in my life, for about a 4-month period  (January, 1979, through May, 1979) between my second law firm job and my hiring by Pitney Bowes.  I was told in October, 1978, that I would not be offered a partnership, was given a few months to look for a job while on the payroll, and then was put in an “of counsel” status, meaning that I would be hired only for hourly project work. I had a little work, but nowhere near enough to support my family.  It was initially scary, and I felt all the self-doubt that Ms. Rampell described in the people she profiled.  When I became unemployed, despite a Harvard Law degree, I did not know when I would be hired to work again.

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Although the induction of Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith to the Pro Football Hall of Fame would not seem to be a subject consistent with what I normally discuss in this blog, the success of both athletes illustrates two broader points:

• Traditional measures of ability do not predict success to a sufficient degree to justify how much those who select athletes, executives, managers, or professionals rely on them.
• What can we learn from the success of those who are outliers in terms of the gap between what traditional predictors of success would say about them and what they have accomplished?

In an article in the November 6, 2010, issue of the New York Times.com entitled “Rice and Smith Inductions a Reminder of the Limits of 40 Times,” reporter Toni Monkovic points out that, by traditional measures, neither Rice nor Smith would have been expected to succeed to the degree they did.  Professional scouts look at both height and weight and at the speed football players achieve in the 40-yard dash.  By both measures, neither athlete was remarkable.  Smith, in particular, the running back with the highest number of career rushing yards all time, was both below average in size (below 6 feet tall) and speed.

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I have not written recently about my work with the Boston University Alzheimer’s Disease Center, but our Advisory Board ended up making a suggestion that eventually resulted in Boston University getting funded to undertake research that led to the findings that are now in the headlines of every sports page and in discussions on every TV and radio sports talk show.  I am speaking about the discussions about the National Football League’s decision to issue a directive to officials, teams, and players that particularly “vicious” hits will be punished with player suspensions as well as penalties.

I commend NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell for having the good sense to address this issue decisively, although, as I will point out, the BU research findings are potentially far more transformational for contact sports than the commentators about the findings have communicated.  What is most interesting, and, to some degree, saddening, is the fierce resistance of many players and commentators to an action that will benefit the players and the sport in the longer term.

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