On Friday, February 26, 2010, Gerald F. Seib, the Wall Street Journal reporter for the Capital Journal column, wrote an insightful column entitled “Parties’ Differences Are Clear – and That’s a Start.”  In his column, he explained clearly the philosophical differences between Republicans and Democrats on health insurance reform.

He stated that there were three fundamental differences:

• Democrats favor comprehensive reform and transformation; Republicans favor a more incremental approach.
• Democrats believe that access is the priority, rather than cost reduction; Republicans believe that if health care costs are reduced, the access problem will get solved.
• Democrats believe strongly that the government needs to set standards for health insurance and health care; Republicans believe that the market, particularly consumers, need to decide what they want for health insurance and health care.

Where do I stand?

• I am somewhere between the two parties on the comprehensiveness issue, although I tend to believe that comprehensive reform opportunities come along infrequently and we should take advantage of this one.  On this issue, I would agree with the Democratic philosophy.
• On the other hand, I do not believe we can tackle the insurance access issue without understanding why access has been a problem in the past. Runaway health care costs cannot be deferred until later.  Business and global competitiveness depend on addressing cost before access.
• Relative to health care needs, I believe the government should create a safety net for those unable to get coverage from private insurance, although I do not believe that safety net should include either guaranteed issue or elimination of pre-existing condition requirements for private insurance policies.  The burden for the least healthy members of our society, and them alone, should be borne by all citizens, not in a way that burdens every private insurance policy.  Government is totally ill equipped to decide on minimum coverage for everyone else.  Over the years, elected officials have repeatedly added coverage mandates to all insurance policies because of the power of special interest groups, whether or not the mandates represented good medicine.  Think back to the excessive expansion of bone marrow transplants combined with high-dose chemotherapy in the early 1990’s because cancer advocacy groups mistakenly believed it could save lives.  In fact, after a Congressional mandate was also adopted in many states, the treatment was found to be worse, on average, than doing nothing.  It shortened lives.

Some very smart people have said to me: “Why don’t we solve the insurance problem now, since we can, and we’ll get to cost reduction later?”

Aside from the competitiveness issues to which I referred above, there are two other problems with expanding coverage and not dealing with upstream prevention and health care system issues:

• Giving someone access to health insurance is not only not the same as giving them access to health care, it often results in lower quality care for everyone because of increased demand, and, eventually, decisions by doctors to stop treating Medicaid patients because they get reimbursed less than they do through commercial insurance.  Having an insurance card, but no doctor to use it with, is useless. Massachusetts has had universal health insurance since 2006, but both the access to care and the quality of that care have suffered.  More non-elderly adults report difficulty in getting access to physicians in 2009 than they did in 2007.
• To the degree that there is universal insurance, but inadequate access to doctor care, there is even more strain on our emergency departments. Many studies have pointed out that a majority of the people who access the emergency department for non-urgent care, that is, inappropriately, have insurance coverage, but either do not have timely access to care or are too impatient to wait until they can get access.  The system gets stressed at its weakest point, emergency care.

I am most disappointed that the Democratic majority in Congress and the very capable White House staff could not establish a prevention and wellness agenda, and begin to take on the badly broken fee-for-service health care payment system.

People who argue the practical politics of tackling the insurance issue always point out to me that politicians are swayed by hard-luck stories, individuals who died or went bankrupt because they could not afford sufficient health insurance to cover catastrophic health problems like cancer, heart disease, or a serious injury.  Unfortunately, no health insurance system can eliminate these tragic stories.  Moreover, increasing demands on the health care system without increasing the supply of physicians and nurses creates other kinds of tragedies.

Politicians are very moved when an individual tells a story about being unable to afford a “life-saving” cancer treatment because of no or inadequate health insurance. What puzzles me about these stories is whether the patient has attempted to get relief directly from the pharmaceutical manufacturer.  Every pharmaceutical company has programs to provide life-saving drugs for individuals who cannot afford them, and they provide relief for many patients every year.

However, the tragedy of someone who had no primary care physician because doctors in his or her community did not accept Medicaid patients, and, who, as a result, has an undiagnosed heart or diabetic condition, is a harder one to portray on the evening news.  The patient generally does not understand that, but for a stingy government program, he or she might have had access to a doctor who could have diagnosed and treated the condition earlier.  A public health official from India described the explosive growth of undiagnosed chronic disease cases as a “health tragedy in slow motion”

Implementing universal and affordable health insurance without addressing the imbalance between supply and demand in the underlying system will simply swap one kind of tragedy for another, at a much higher cost to the taxpayer and to businesses that can create jobs to bring many more people out of poverty.  The Democratic majority seems hell-bent to do something, even if it is the wrong something, relative to health insurance.  That’s too bad, and we will all pay dearly for the mistake.

Recently, the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force was the subject of a great deal of criticism for issuing revised guidelines that recommended that, except for women who have specific elevated risk factors, such as a family history of breast cancer, women not receive regular mammograms until age 50. These revised guidelines were roundly attacked.  As Blogger Helen Searles wrote in a December 1 posting:

“Within hours of announcing its findings, the Task Force faced a barrage of attacks from women, doctors, journalists and politicians across the U.S. The onslaught was swift, harsh, and emotionally charged.”

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In the Monday, November 23, Wall Street Journal , reporter Melinda Beck recounts a number of our successes in improving public health in an article entitled “20 Advances to be Thankful For.” Among the advances she highlights are:

• The fact that we had the same number of traffic fatalities in 2008 as we had in 1961, which is remarkable considering the significant increase in the driving population, the number of cars on the road, and the number of miles driven;
• The 50% decline in trans fats in packaged foods since 2006;
• The fact that 71% of our population lives under either a state or local ban on smoking in workplaces and/or restaurants and bars; and
• The fact that the percentage of secondary school that no longer sell soda, candy, or high-fat snacks have each risen to 64%.

I zeroed in on this article for two reasons:

• It reminds us that we are doing many things well as a society, even though the media often choose to focus on things that are going wrong.
• More importantly, there are multiple success stories from which we can learn how to improve overall population health.  Government intervention was a factor in every one of these cases, but it was not the only factor.  There were many forces, including private sector advocacy groups, that influenced human behavior for the better.

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During the course of determining whether I should invest in a documentary film about dogs, I gained some quite interesting insights into the potentially new role dogs can play in our health care system.  Because dogs have a sense of smell that is 40 times as acute and discriminating as that residing in humans, some researchers have explored whether dogs can detect diseases as accurately and reliability as much more expensive technologies, with no need for invasive and time-consuming diagnostic processes.

Two organizations, the Pine Street Foundation in California and the Sensory Research Institute at Florida State University, have each done reported studies which have concluded that dogs can reliably detect various kinds of cancers, such as prostate, breast and skin cancers, because tumor cells give off different odors from regular cells.  It will be quite interesting to determine whether their reliable detection is such that they can detect the presence of these diseases even earlier than more high-tech alternatives like 64-slice CT scans or MRI’s or nuclear magnetic resonance systems.  Dogs apparently have demonstrated as well that they can detect the imminence of an epileptic seizure minutes before the individual subject to the seizure has any symptoms.

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As I have thought about how to change human behavior to get people to do healthier things, I remember the 1984 movie The Karate Kid. In that movie, the lead character, Daniel LaRusso, played by Ralph Macchio, finds a master teacher, Mr. Miyagi, played by Pat Morita.  He believes that he is going to receive conventional instruction on how to be a karate black belt.  Instead, he gets assigned one chore after another, such as painting fences and waxing cars.  It is only after he is doing these chores for a while that he realizes that each task is also serving to strengthen him for karate.  He develops his capabilities while doing something else.

I believe that the only way we will change societal behaviors and get people to do things which make them healthier is to make healthy activity unconscious and fun.  For example, on the web site Thefuntheory.com, there is a video which shows the building, installation, and use of a stairway adjacent to an escalator in what appears to be a Swedish train station.  Because each step in the stairway looks like a big piano key and each one sounds a note as someone steps on it, the result is that stairway usage increases by 66%.

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One of the most complex medical challenges policymakers face is when and how much to pay for treatments and screenings for cancers.  Screenings and treatments are extremely expensive, and, while they allow for earlier detection and potential treatment of cancers, they are also very costly and have a high degree of unreliability.

As non-medical professionals, we tend to believe that diagnostic tests like mammograms and biopsies are clear and definitive.  The reality is much complex:

• Biopsies indicate the presence or absence of cancer cells in the tissue samples taken.  Whether there are cancer cells in tissues not subject to sampling is unknowable unless there are other ways to detect their presence.  Moreover, biopsies only indicate that cancer cells are present, and like a snapshot taken at a point in time.  They do not indicate whether the cancer is growing.
• Mammograms also have reliability issues.  To some degree, radiologists miss indicators of cancer cells, and also, sometimes,  have the problem of “false positives,” that is, a mistake is made in diagnosing someone with cancer when they have no cancer cells present.  Similar to biopsies, mammograms can only tell doctors and patients whether cancer cells, not whether those cells will grow over time.

In a newsletter entitled “Medicine for People” published by the Monroe Street Medical Clinic, the authors correctly point out that there are many non-aggressive breast cancers with which women can live for decades.  As they point out, “the most common form of cancer detected by mammography is ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). This is a cancer confined within a milk duct within the breast.”

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In past blogs, I have observed that one of the fatal drawbacks to government-run health plans is their inability to respond flexibly to advances in medical science, even when medical evidence is relatively clear and the human and financial costs of not responding are very high. 

Rita Rubin of USA Today,  in the Monday, August 24, 2009, issue of the news daily, in an article entitled “Dialysis Treatment in USA: High Costs, High Death Rates” describes a clear example supporting my argument.  In that article, Ms. Rubin points out that when Medicare began paying for dialysis in the early 1970’s, the prevailing view was that between 3 and 6 hours of dialysis a day three days a week was sufficient.  Medical opinion has now come to the conclusion that 3-day-a-week treatments are extremely inadequate.  As Ms. Rubin summarizes a set of comments by Dallas nephrologist Thomas Parker III, co-organizer of a conference at Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center:

“Normal kidneys work 24/7, not a few shifts a week, so the standard treatment replaces only 10% to 13% of their function, Parker says.  How much dialysis is enough isn’t clear, he says, because few studies have randomly assigned patients to different amounts to test which approach is more effective.”

Later in the article, she notes that many physicians and patients believe that longer and/or more frequent dialysis can not only improve the quality of life, but also reduce hospitalizations.  Given the fact that Medicare paid $8.6 billion in 2007 for dialysis treatment and that 20.1% of the patients on dialysis died in 2006 from heart disease and infections, one would think that correcting this problem and getting to the right answer would have been an urgent priority for the federal government.

Unfortunately, being a highly-politicized program with annual budget targets and many competing politically-driven demands and limited staff, Medicare has not taken up this issue and addressed it.  Moreover, it is unlikely that any government program would operate differently because the consequences of a mistake in a highly-centralized program are huge.

In a more decentralized health system, driven by cost-saving and quality improvement objectives, this problem would have been tackled and probably addressed by now.

I do not consider government officials to be incompetent or insensitive to issues like this.  However, the reality is that, in a single payer system in which every major decision is highly visible, has political consequences, and affects potentially millions of lives and billions of dollars per year, the likelihood is extremely high that either the decision will take a very long time, or it will never get made. 

Think about it for a moment: is any Medicare official or any lawmaker being held accountable for this bad outcome?  The answer is very clear: no one has been held accountable or will be held accountable for inaction.

On the other hand, if Medicare radically alters its approach and starts to pay for longer and more frequent dialysis, the short-term cost increases will be highly visible and heavily criticized.  The downstream savings in reduced hospitalizations and deaths, and in improved quality of health and life will not be visible, and therefore, the decision will be perceived as a bad one, perhaps shortening the career of whoever makes that decision.

This is not a good way to run a health care system, but a public plan option which ultimately wipes out a more decentralized and innovative set of health care systems would make this mediocre-to-poor decision process the norm across the entire system.

In the Thursday, August 13, 2009, Wall Street Journal, I read an article entitled “End-of-Life Provision Loses Favor.”  In this article, the reporter Janet Adamy refers to a provision on the House of Representatives version of the health care reform legislation which directs Medicare to pay physicians for sessions with patients in which they counsel patients on the need for living wills, health care powers-of-attorney, and other aspects of end-of-life planning.  On the one hand, the provision is one way to get doctors to take the time to get patients to do end-of-life planning, but as Ms. Adamy points out:

“Opponents say the provision shows that architects of the health-care overhaul want to ration seniors’ care.”

Care rationing is highly controversial, and probably could not sustain the support of a majority of Americans.

How did health care reform proponents end up in this situation?

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In the Sunday, July 19, 2009, New York Times,   an article authored by Peter Singer entitled “Why We Must Ration Health Care” made the argument that public, and probably private, health insurance should limit payments for medical treatments that are not cost-effective in delivering health improvement.  He makes the argument that “Health care is a scarce resource, and all scarce resources are rationed in one way or another.”

While there are many compelling points in Singer’s article, I feel that he has analyzed the problem of health care costs at the wrong place with the wrong argument.  The problem of runaway health care costs starts with the root cause of having too many people that get sick or injured by failing to take proper care of themselves.  The vast majority of our costs are a result of front-end behaviors by individuals who deteriorate over time and incur significant costs from preventable chronic diseases.

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One of my experiences was a lunch at a popular New York City restaurant on July 8.  When I looked at the menu, every item was labeled relative to the calorie content of the item.  I was ready to order the caesar salad as a low-calorie alternative, when I was shocked to find out that the salad contained 790 calories, and that the salad with chicken was 1,325 calories.  To my surprise, the 10-ounce filet mignon was only 390 calories, so I ordered it and also had a cup of soup.  Undoubtedly, absent the disclosure, I would have ordered the salad.

I also wear a pedometer every day and almost always am able to walk or run sufficiently to get to 10,000 steps per day.  On July 8, on my way to the restaurant, I was taking a subway from East 86^th Street in New York to Grand Central Terminal at East 42^nd Street.  While I was on the subway, I noticed that I had 20 minutes to spare when the train pulled into the 59^th Street station, and that I needed to log a number of steps.  As a result, I exited the train at 59^th Street and walked the rest of the way, because I saw that it would be difficult for me to get to my target.

At Pitney Bowes, we took one further action relative to marketing the benefits of walking.  At the bottom of our 3^rd floor stairway in our World Headquarters, we have a sign that informs someone that if they walk up and down these stairs every for a year instead of taking the elevator behind the stairs, they would lose 5 pounds.  I watch people make the discretionary decision to take the stairway rather than the elevator.

The Wall Street Journal article notes that the same behavior occurs relative to electricity usage when a home has a power monitor that informs the home owner minute by minute how much power has been consumed.  The author, Geoffrey Fowler, cites an Oxford University study in 2006 that found that “people getting direct feedback on their power consumption reduced use 5% to 15%.

There are two implications to these data points:

•       If we want to reduce overeating or to increase exercise, measuring, monitoring, and disclosing the quantitative aspects of a behavior will change the behavior.
•       Conversely, if we want to change an unconscious behavior by altering the environment that produces it, that will be successful as well. Eating, exercising, and other behaviors, good and bad, have a heavy unconscious, automatic aspect to them.

Reflecting on my behavior in the restaurant and on the subway, I am more convinced than ever that mandatory nutritional labeling works if it is quantitative.  Warnings like the Surgeon General’s warning on cigarette packages are much less effective because they are not quantitative.  Similarly, disclosures on prescription drug packages relative to side effects are also relatively ineffective because they are not quantitative.

My good friend Dr. Elliott Fisher of Dartmouth’s Health Policy Institute introduced me to a different form of disclosure relative to prescription drugs, a one-page chart that lists every side effect, but that specifically supplements the disclosure by listing in quantitative fashion the results of the clinical trials conducted for that drug.  Thus, for example, the chart does not simply say that Drug X has been shown to cause headaches in some people.  It specifically discloses that of the 2,500 people who took the drug, 17 of them, or .68%, experienced headaches.  There are some indications that individuals confronted with quantitative information react differently.  Some pay attention to the disclosure and decide they do not want to take the risk; others are reassured by a low-percentage risk disclosure and decide they will take the risk.  In both cases, the quantitative disclosure altered behaviors.

Because of all these experiences and observations, I have become a strong believer in more detailed labeling and disclosure, as well as much more quantitative disclosure, whenever such disclosure is not false or misleading.